Nuclear plans may stall on uranium shortage
Growing global competition for scarce enriched uranium threatens to derail a much-heralded nuclear renaissance in the United States and around the world, says an industry researcher from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
In a report released yesterday, MIT researcher Thomas Neff said there has been 20 years of under-investment in uranium production and enrichment, resulting in a tightening of supply that has driven prices up eightfold.
The shortfall leaves a gap between the potential increase in demand for nuclear energy -- which is particularly strong in Asia -- and the ability to supply fuel for it.
In a telephone interview from Cambridge, Mass., the veteran consultant said he has had extensive discussions with utility executives who rely on nuclear power, "and they're getting freaked out."
Russia, China and India have each embarked on major nuclear building programs -- Russia alone is planning 20 new reactors -- and that increased demand for enriched uranium will put a tremendous strain on the market.
Mined uranium, before being used in most reactor types or in nuclear weapons,must be further processed--or enriched-- to isolate the uranium-235 isotope.
Mr. Neff said U.S. utility executives tend to take a shorter-term approach than government-backed utilities in Asia, which could put a brake on their ability to build new reactors.
"The Chinese and the Russians are in almost every potential uranium-producing country looking for joint ventures and long-term supply arrangements," he said. American utilities have become complacent. "They've never seen anything like this. By the time they get out there and say, 'I need to buy something,' they're going to see a lot of it locked up by the other guys."
But after years of virtually no growth in the nuclear industry, analysts expect a mini-boom with the addition of at least 65 new reactors in the next 20 years, increasing electricity output by 20 per cent. And that figure would climb if governments get serious about reducing greenhouse gas emissions and insist that new coal plants include expensive carbon-dioxide reduction technology.
In recent years, uranium production met only 60 per cent of the demand from utilities, with the rest of demand coming from inventories, recycling and the conversion of plutonium from former Soviet missile warheads. But those supplies are also drying up, Mr. Neff said.
Globe and Mail