‘Wolverine’ Howls For $21M Friday And Will Whimper For Weakening $56M Weekend
SATURDAY 7:15 AM, 2ND UPDATE: Such a relief to only have one major new release Friday while I’m on vacation. Hugh Jackman. The Wolverine. ‘A-’ CinemaScore. No fresh competition. What more is there to say? Twentieth Century Fox couldn’t go wrong with this weekend’s #1 successful pairing. Or could it? Fox today says this 6th X-Men installment opened in 3,924 theaters (3,063 in 3D) with $21.0M Friday, not the $23M the studio projected after that strong $4M from Thursday late shows beginning at 10 PM. Fox then throughout Friday began downsizing The Wolverine weekend from $65M to $61M. ”It’s an odd one because off the late shows Thursday and probably into mid-day yesterday we thought we were headed to $65M or thereabouts – and it just kept slipping downward as the day wore on into the evening,” a Fox exec explains to me. But rival majors last night estimated an even lower $53M-$56M - and they were right: “Softer than many people thought it might be as the last Wolverine film openedto $85.1M,” as a rival exec said last night. This new pic instead of sizzling is fizzling as the domestic weekend plays out. Though it’s a shame to see Jackman’s version of the Marvel Wolverine played out. (Hugh obviously loves the role a lot.) A Fox exec tells me this morning: “We didn’t expect this either. But there have been times before when audience fatigue sets in. We’ll see how this weekend ultimately shakes out as Hugh is a very compelling box office draw, and international is performing quite well. So we will have an excellent global story to tell tomorrow.”
Fox has breathing room for this tentpole because it claims The Wolverine‘s cost is under $120M after Australian tax credits even though pic is set in modern-day Japan. And studio has a $32.3M partnership campaign and $11.3M above-the-line media advertising with 11 national partners including DirecTV, Adidas, Audi, Coors Light, Movietickets.com, Red Robin, Amazon, Kroger/Sprite, Aaron Bros., Visa. Internationally, The Wolverine is expected to kill – i.e. do very very well - in the 101 countries day and date where it’s opening (126 countries overall on about 13,000 screens) including all major markets except Japan and China.
Big question I have is whether it confused audiences to have X-Men reboots releasing alongside standalone Wolverine pics. In 2009, X-Men Origins: Wolverine did well even though it leaked online and wasn’t liked. It only received 38% positive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes vs 68% for this new one directed by James Mangold, scripted by credited screenwriters Mark Bomback and Scott Frank, and produced by Lauren Shuler Donner, Hutch Parker, and Jackman’s ex-partner John Palermo. But the 2009 pic opened the first week of summer while this installment is releasing in the crowded 2013 midsummer where in the past 5 weeks no live-action movie has opened over $45M.
In other domestic box office news, Sony/Happy Madison’s The Grown-Ups passed the $100M mark and Universal/Illumination Entertainment’s Despicable Me 2 marked $300M. Total moviegoing is around $160M, up a nice +28% from last year when The Dark Knight Rises held as #1. Fuller analysis later.
Here’s the Top Ten on Friday:
1. The Wolverine 3D (20th Century Fox) NEW [Runs 3,924] PG13
Friday $20.5M, Weekend $55.0M
2. The Conjuring (New Line/Warner Bros) Week 2 [Runs 3,022] R
Friday $7.3M (-57%), Weekend $24.3M, Cume $86.0M
3. Despicable Me 2 3D (Illumination/Universal) Week 4 [Runs 3,476] PG
Friday $4.8M, Weekend $16.0M, Cume $306.3M
4. Turbo 3D (DreamWorks Animation/Fox) Week 2 [Runs 3,809]
Friday $4.0M (-39%), Weekend $13.1M, Cume $55.5M
5. Grown Ups 2 (Columbia/Sony) Week 3 [Runs 3,258] PG13
Friday $3.6M, Weekend $11.4M, Cume $101.5M
6. Red 2 (Summit/Lionsgate) Week 2 [Runs 3,016] PG13
Friday $2.7M (-57%), Weekend $8.7M, Cume $34.4M
7. Pacific Rim 3D (Legendary/Warner Bros) Week 3 [Runs 2,602] PG13
Friday $2.2M, Weekend $7.3M, Cume $83.8M
8. The Heat (Twentieth Century Fox) Week 5 [Runs 2,384] R
Friday $2.0M, Weekend $6.8M, Cume $141.1M
9. R.I.P.D. 3D (Universal) Week 2 [Runs 2,850] PG13
Friday $1.8M (-62%), Weekend $5.8M, Cume $24.2M
10. Fruitvale Station (Weinstein) Week 3 [Runs 1,064] R
Friday $1.4M, Weekend $4.1M, Cume $5.8M